Finance ministry has estimated that India’s nominal GDP will grow by 19 per cent in nominal terms in financial year 2021-22, reported Mint. Nominal GDP is an assessment which includes the current prices of goods and services in its calculation.“There are varied estimates. The chief economic advisor said in his presentation that it could go as high as 19%, while some had even said it could be 21% as an extreme case and others said it could be more modest,” NK Singh, chairman of the 15th Finance Commission, told Mint.In the first quarter of this financial year, the nominal GDP contracted by 22.6 per cent to Rs 38.08 lakh crore, compared to Rs 49.18 lakh crore in the same period last year.
Despite the contraction, caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, many sectors are already on the path of recovery, chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said earlier. “When you take into account some of the reforms that have been done on the agriculture side, on labour, on privatization, all those together will increase productivity in the economy and therefore will help bringing back growth,” he had said.In its latest forecast on September 11, Moody’s Investors Service had projected a 10.6% real GDP growth and a 4% CPI inflation for FY22. Goldman Sachs Group Inc estimated a 14.8 per cent contraction in GDP for the year through March 2021, while the ADB has forecast a contraction of 9 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India is likely release its own growth forecast on October 1.